Author: Deb, Partha; Wilhelm, Mark; Rooney, Patrick; and Brown, Melissa

Publication Year:

Media Type: Report

Summary:

Giving USA annual estimates of charitable giving in the are widely used by practitioners, policy-makers, academics, and the media. In addition, each editions estimate of giving for the previous year is the first indication of generosity in that year, and, as such, generates much publicity. Over 60 percent of this estimate is based upon the amount claimed as charitable deductions on federal income taxes. However, this amount is not known prior to the publication of Giving USA and therefore must itself be estimated. Different time-series models have been used in past editions of Giving USA to generate this estimate, but the quality of the estimates from these models has never been systematically examined.

Abstract:

Giving USA annual estimates of charitable giving in the are widely used by practitioners, policy-makers, academics, and the media. In addition, each editions estimate of giving for the previous year is the first indication of generosity in that year, and, as such, generates much publicity. Over 60 percent of this estimate is based upon the amount claimed as charitable deductions on federal income taxes. However, this amount is not known prior to the publication of Giving USA and therefore must itself be estimated. Different time-series models have been used in past editions of Giving USA to generate this estimate, but the quality of the estimates from these models has never been systematically examined.

This paper describes the model used in Giving USA 2002 to estimate charitable deductions in 2001 and explains the criteria by which that model was selected. The paper also presents a systematic comparison of this model to others previously used in Giving USA. Over the 1990 the most recent period for which an evaluation of the models is possible, the three most recent Giving USA models would have performed well.  However, of these, the model presented herein would have provided somewhat more accurate estimates.

Arts & Intersections:

Categories: Fundraising